SIMON JORDAN: Newcastle are trapped in vicious circle and Eddie Howe may not be around by the time they’re allowed to compete

I sat down with Eddie Howe recently. A very nice fellow. A capable Premier League manager? Absolutely. He won’t be short of offers if and when he leaves St James’ Park at some stage.

Newcastle’s form this season has been inconsistent. They recently made a good fist of it against Liverpool but prior to that they lost at home to an out-of-sorts West Ham and drew with Crystal Palace, then after the Lord Mayor’s Show against the Premier League leaders they were beaten again, at Brentford.

Alan Shearer made the point they had to be more motivated against perceived lower opposition rather than save their best for the big teams. It’s a message that is relevant with Leicester City visiting this weekend.

The analysis has merit but ignores an element of the real problem for Howe. Which is that to compete consistently at the highest level in the current football landscape, for Newcastle to kick on, they are being asked to square a practically impossible circle.

How can they reach for the stars, competing for trophies and punching very high in the Premier League, without the financial climate that will permit them to grow to achieve.

We know their Saudi ownership has plenty of money but can’t make funds available to their club because of PSR.

The Magpies have endured an uneven run of form at the start of their 2024-25 campaign

Unlike Premier League rivals Chelsea, the club is hamstrung by stringent PSR demands

Newcastle have a turnover of between £200million and £400m a year less than rivals they want to challenge; like Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United.

The only way they can grow is by winning on the field. The only way they can really win on the field anytime soon is by buying better players. And they can only acquire them by spending money which isn’t allowed under current rules.

While I was an advocate for Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), foolishly believing it was a mechanism to control cost, reduce hyperinflation in wages and transfer fees and make the industry more sustainable, what it is actually is an unsophisticated blunt instrument that does nothing but pull the drawbridge up for the elite and effectively says ‘no, thank you’ to any new real challengers.

The irony of PSR is that – like it or not, and I have my reservation – what is more sustainable than a nation state sovereign wealth fund of £800billion bankrolling an English football club and also paying hundreds of millions into the sport and the British Exchequer?

What the current regulations mean for Eddie Howe and Newcastle is that they are caught inside a vacuum, a Bermuda Triangle.

He has had some success but the expectations are even greater because the ownership is so significant. The manager has support from the fanbase and bought well with players like Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes.

Yet qualifying for the Champions League in his first full season set a benchmark that is now difficult to maintain without continued investment which they are prohibited to do.

How do Newcastle bridge that gap so he is unassailable in the minds of the owners?

The manager is therefore responsible for boosting the club’s chances with results on the pitch

Alexander Isak (left) and Bruno Guimaraes have proved inspired purchases but the club needs to recruit even more shrewdly to bridge the gap

Next week is a big one with a Carabao Cup quarter-final against Brentford, significant because Newcastle have infamously failed to win a trophy since 1969.

Clearly Newcastle at their best are a good side, and can be entertaining and exciting as they showed in their 3-3 thriller with Liverpool.

When I met up with Eddie, it was me rather than him who raised the unfairness of the current financial restrictions stifling his club, though he did agree.

My view is you can’t continue forever to stop ambitious owners wanting to develop their opportunities at a team they want to invest in. If the Premier League governance doesn’t pack in its nonsense, the inevitable outcome will be a Super League of some description.

It hasn’t gone away and while Newcastle right now wouldn’t have automatic passage, it might reshape the game where they could begin to spend bigger and bolder without restrictions.

So far, the Saudis have only spent £300m to buy the club and the same again on players, which is small change to them.

By the time Newcastle are able to fulfil the owner’s dream of being a major force, it might be too late for Howe and having spent time with him I do hope that is not the case.

My view – and this is personal, not gleaned from anything he said to me – is that he will depart from St James’ Park in around 18 months to coincide with Thomas Tuchel’s leaving the England job. That might be a satisfactory outcome for everyone.

Howe could yet be a shoo-in to replace England head coach Thomas Tuchel in 18 months

Firstly, though Eddie has a trophy to go out and win.

I’m sure members of the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) didn’t go through the trouble of buying a Premier League club because of a dream of winning the Carabao Cup.

But given the restrictions the club faces, it might be the best option Eddie has to try and become the first English manager since Harry Redknapp in 2008 to win a major trophy on these shores.

I’m impressed by Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s cutthroat Dan Ashworth decision  

Successful alpha-male types like Sir Jim Ratcliffe can make different mistakes, but they rarely make the same mistakes twice.

So having surprised me with a lack of definitive thinking about Erik ten Hag’s future, it was more a reversion to type that he signed off on Dan Ashworth leaving Manchester United after five months.

Whether Sir Jim hired him as best in class, then decided he wasn’t as strong a candidate as he thought, I don’t know. But decisive action was the order of the day.

Ratcliffe has got involved in United to the tune of a billion pounds. He’s a commercial animal and is clearly looking closely at the club and demanding people step up or go.

In my experience as a football club owner, albeit not the same scale as United, you don’t mind battling and fighting your competition or the outside world.

But it is perplexing when you find you are fighting your own people, when those around you are your biggest problems when they should be the solutions.

There may be an element of that which might over time disillusion Jim but this is not a man that strikes me lacking fortitude.

You have to be impressed by the business acumen in his own field. In his pursuit of getting United right, I get the impression he will stop at nothing – least of all the optics of decisions that the media world love to live by – in getting his way of the desired outcome: Manchester United back on top.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s decisive business acumen came to the fore this week with the severing of ties between Man United and Dan Ashworth

The sporting director spent just five months at the club after being prised from Newcastle

But the cost of despatching Ashworth looks like small change compared to unsuccessful former signings like Donny van de Beek

Big changes start with culture and that is underpinned by infrastructure. He is putting it in place. If Ashworth isn’t good enough in his view, he’s well served getting him out sooner rather than later.

I’ve read about the money involved but if United as a club lost around £35million signing Donny van de Beek, Ashworth only costs a fraction of that to move on.

Ratcliffe is going to drive Manchester United as hard as he can. He is going to push standards and disciplines and accountability, and that is going to be the biggest changes.

People – and that includes the players – are not going to be allowed to perform at a level without consequence. Everyone will have to operate better than they have been or there will be no tolerance.