Why, how and when Italy will enter the decisive 2026 World Cup play-offs

UDINE, ITALY – OCTOBER 14: Gianluca Mancini of Italy celebrates scoring his team’s third goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Israel at Stadio Friuli on October 14, 2025 in Udine, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Italy are now practically guaranteed to go into the 2026 World Cup play-offs, so here is an idea of who they could face and when.

The Azzurri beat Israel 3-0 this evening to secure at least second place in Group I.

If they beat Norway in the head-to-head on November 16, assuming both teams win their other match too, then they will end level on 21 points.

However, Norway have such a big advantage in terms of goal difference, currently +26 to +10, that their only real hope of topping the group is for Erling Haaland’s men to drop points against Estonia on November 13.

This is why Italy are preparing for the play-offs, with the draw to be held on November 21.

How the World Cup play-offs work

The 12 group runners-up enter the play-offs, along with the four best-ranked group winners of the 2024-25 Nations League who did not take first or second place in their World Cup groups.

Those total 16 teams then go into four play-off paths, playing single-leg semi-finals on March 26, and then single-leg finals on March 31.

Italy would be top seeds in the draw, therefore matched in the semi-final at home against one of the four sides entered via the Nations League results.

If they win, then they’d play one of the second or third seeded teams in the final, again with home advantage.

Who could Italy face?

As things currently stand, Italy, Turkey, Ukraine and Poland would be the top seeds in the play-off draw.

The second seeds are now the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Scotland.

Third seeds are North Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.

The teams who would qualify via the Nations League, and therefore be available as potential Azzurri opponents in the semi-final, are Wales, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland.

How did Italy fail before?

When the Azzurri did enter the World Cup play-offs before, they failed in two different formats.

On the road to 2018, they lost the two-legged play-off to Sweden, 1-0 on aggregate in November 2017.

When it came to the 2022 tournament, the Nazionale didn’t make it past the semi-final, defeated 1-0 in stoppages by North Macedonia.