Why Aston Villa CAN win the title: The genius of Unai Emery, the crisis talks that turned their season around, the qualities Emery is banking on Tammy Abraham and Douglas Luiz bringing and club’s hardline stance over Morgan Rogers

No Premier League story can ever match Leicester City’s glorious march to the title a decade ago, but if Aston Villa were to emulate them in May it would run it pretty close.

Due to Premier League and UEFA financial regulations, Villa have a fraction of the spending power of England’s wealthiest clubs and are constantly walking a tightrope to stay within the rules. They have not lifted a major trophy since 1996 and last won the league in 1981.

They do not have an Arsenal or Manchester City-style squad with two high-class players for every position. So when injuries start to bite, as they are doing now, Villa have to improvise. By contrast, City have spent more than £80million in this window on Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo.

Hindered by spending rules, Villa had to move Donyell Malen to Roma to bring in Tammy Abraham from Besiktas, and their response to a midfield injury crisis has been to re-sign Douglas Luiz on loan. By any logical measure, they should not be able to compete.

That they are only four points off the league leaders at the end of January should warm the heart of every supporter of clubs outside the ‘Big Six’. They are managing to compete even when they feel the dice are loaded against them.

Their success can be attributed largely to one man: Unai Emery, surely the best pound-for-pound coach in the Premier League.

Hindered by spending rules, Villa had to move Donyell Malen to Roma to bring in Tammy Abraham (pictured) from Besiktas

Villa’s summer was utterly chaotic and their start to the season similarly alarming. They did not score in the league until September 21 and did not win in the competition until the following week.

Emi Martinez had spent the summer trying to leave and it is thought his conduct at that time left some team-mates unimpressed. They felt the same way when the popular Jacob Ramsey was sold to Newcastle, while the lack of new signings spread doubt.

At that stage, Premier League rivals believed the club was falling apart and even on the inside, senior figures could not see how the slump could be reversed. To many, a top-10 finish appeared the best they could hope for.

They had all reckoned without Emery. The Villa boss turned a crisis into a sequence of victories by changing precisely nothing. Same training patterns, same tactical plan, same analysis meetings.

A conversation with the squad in mid-September proved decisive, as Emery told his players he was worried and demanded to know whether they were as invested as he was in turning the situation around. Twelve victories in 13 games was a pretty emphatic response.

Now come the key moments. Injury means Boubacar Kamara is likely to miss the rest of the season while John McGinn and Youri Tielemans will be sidelined until spring. The midfield trio are among Villa’s top players and their absence will hurt the side. Yet Villa still managed to win at Newcastle for the first time since 2005 without Kamara and McGinn.

So can they do it? The odds are not with them. But they were stacked against Leicester too. And with Emery in the dugout, anything is possible.

The Emery Factor

Villa’s bad run at the start of the season might have ruined the rapport within many squads. Instead, it has made this one stronger.

‘This is the model of consistency we have been striving for, for years,’ says Tyrone Mings. ‘Everyone in the squad is contributing and it makes me proud to be part of it. We are getting the maximum out of everyone and the manager deserves great credit for that. It should be a special time to be a Villa fan.’

‘We are getting the maximum out of everyone and the manager deserves great credit for that,’ says Tyrone Mings (pictured on Wednesday). ‘It should be a special time to be a Villa fan’

Few managers work as hard as Emery. He leads every training session and will repeat drills until he is satisfied with them

Few managers work as hard as Emery. He leads every training session and will repeat certain drills until he is 100 per cent satisfied, sometimes seizing a player by the arm to move him into the position he wants.

When he meets players one to one before the match, he shows them clips on his laptop and gives them a few key pointers. ‘Don’t worry about anything else – just do this,’ is broadly the message.

The structure at this club has been built for Emery. His key lieutenant, director of football Damian Vidagany, provides the link between all departments, ensuring Emery can focus on football alone. About 20 members of staff, most of them Spanish, have been hired on Emery’s recommendation since he arrived more than three years ago. When transfer chief Monchi left, Emery’s long-time ally Roberto Olabe was his replacement.

Before a recent Premier League fixture, Emery said that his coaching dream is to win the Champions League. Lifting the league title with Villa would surely match it.

Clever transfers

Emery has been urging Villa’s recruitment staff to do everything they can this month, believing they have a chance to make history. Financial rules limit their room for manoeuvre but unlike in the summer, at least there seems a method to Villa’s movements. 

On the face of it, Luiz might seem a strange move. Hindered by injury, the Brazilian has started only 16 club matches since leaving Villa for Juventus in 2024. Back then, relations between Emery and Luiz had become strained, with the Villa boss frustrated at Luiz’s habit of losing concentration during matches, and Luiz feeling exhausted by Emery’s relentless demands.

Yet under Emery, Luiz became one of the best midfielders in the league. He has a point to prove and will be desperate to force his way into the Brazil squad for the World Cup. Luiz is a set-piece expert and will need no adaptation process as he has already played for Emery.

As for Abraham, Emery has followed the England forward closely since his stellar debut season at Roma, when he scored 27 goals and helped them win the Conference League.

Under Emery, Douglas Luiz (left) became one of the best midfielders in the league. He has a point to prove and will be desperate to force his way into the Brazil squad for the World Cup

Since then, Abraham has suffered an ACL injury and scored 33 times in three-and-a-half seasons, one of which was heavily curtailed by injury.

Yet those who doubt the signing should examine Emery’s record with centre forwards. Alvaro Negredo, Carlos Bacca, Edinson Cavani and Ollie Watkins have all benefited hugely from his coaching and Emery is confident Abraham can too.

Abraham was ready to return to the Premier League and Villa felt the perfect option. He helped the club win promotion in 2019 while on loan from Chelsea and was happy there. 

Looking for stability in his career, what better club to choose than one where he has been successful before. A phone call with Emery, explaining exactly what Abraham’s role would be and when he would be required, was what was needed to seal the deal.

Magical Morgan Rogers

Arsenal must be looking at Villa’s No27 and wondering whether they should have made more effort to sign him in the summer. By contrast, Villa co-owner Nassef Sawiris can be very happy with the hard line he took.

Along with all the leading Premier League and European clubs, Arsenal thought long and hard about Rogers last summer but were put off by the asking price. Sawiris was never going to consider any offer that fell below the £100million Manchester City paid for Jack Grealish in summer 2021.

Arsenal, among others, thought long and hard about Morgan Rogers last summer but were put off by the asking price. Villa will be delighted at the tough stance they took

Rogers is virtually unstoppable when he moves through the gears, opponents bouncing off him as they try to stop him

When Rogers struggled at the start of the season, it seemed Villa might have overplayed their hand. Now it seems a masterstroke. Like a rugby league player in full flight, Rogers is virtually unstoppable when he moves through the gears, opponents bouncing off him as they try to stop him.

When people watch Rogers, they see an instinctive player – raw power, speed and skill. Yet Emery considers the 23-year-old one of the most tactically intelligent players at his disposal. He was immediately impressed by how quickly Rogers absorbed instructions and put them into practice – whether on the right, the left, or in the No10 role.

During those early-season difficulties, Emery might have been tempted to protect Rogers, especially when supporters were on his back. Instead, he wanted to see how Rogers would respond to the hostility. By constantly demanding the ball and trying to be ambitious on the pitch, Rogers passed the test.

As long as Rogers stays healthy and on the right track, he will surely lift the Premier League title one day. Who knows, perhaps that day will come sooner than anyone expects.