Champions League supercomputer makes Premier League team heavy favourites

The draw for the Champions League last 16 took place on Friday and now each team can map out their road to the final in Budapest, with all five Premier League clubs still in the competition

Arsenal have been installed as the favourites to win the Champions League after Friday’s draw treated them kindly. The Gunners have been placed on a side of the draw which would see them avoid the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain until the final in Budapest.

In the round of 16, Arsenal have been pitted against Bayer Leverkusen. Should they advance, they’ll play one of Bodo/Glimt or Sporting Lisbon in the quarter-finals.

Their semi-final opponent would be either Tottenham, Newcastle, Barcelona or Atletico Madrid. Thanks to finishing first in the Champions League table, Arsenal will have home advantage in each second leg.

All that is why data company Opta have given Mikel Arteta’s side the best percentage chance of lifting the trophy in May. Arsenal have been given a huge 27 per cent chance of winning the Champions League for the first time in their history.

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That’s almost double that of second favourites Bayern, who are narrowly ahead of Liverpool. Arsenal’s Premier League title rivals, City, are in fourth with a 10 per cent chance after drawing Real Madrid in the last 16.

In fifth, Barcelona have been given a seven per cent chance. The La Liga champions are ranked above Chelsea, Newcastle and PSG.

Perhaps the most surprising ranking is Real Madrid. The 15-time kings of Europe have been given just a two per cent chance of winning title No.16.

The English team given the lowest chance are Tottenham, who’ll face Atletico Madrid in the last 16. Opta rate Spurs’ hopes at just one per cent.

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Reacting to Friday’s draw, Arsenal boss Arteta said: “We are really excited. Fighting on four fronts and the way the team is consistently performing gives us a lot of hope and positive thoughts about what is coming. But we can only focus on the present.

“That’s where we’re going to put our energy and that’s on Sunday (against Chelsea). I focus a lot on what we have to do to continue in the manner and the trajectory that we are as a team, and from there, obviously try to improve.”

This year’s final will take place on Saturday, May 30 at the Puskas Arena. PSG are the holders, having thrashed Inter Milan 5-0 in the 2025 final.

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