How Serie A’s last Champions League spot could be decided by random draw

With only 90 minutes of Serie A football remaining, Juventus, Lazio, and Roma are the only teams still in contention for the fourth and final Champions League spot. However, an extremely unlikely scenario could see two of them finish level on points, with a random draw becoming the only possible way to decide who qualifies for Europe’s top competition.

Juventus’ 2-0 win over Udinese lifted them two points clear of Lazio, who drew 2-2 with Inter, while maintaining a one-point lead over Roma, who beat Milan 3-1.

The Bianconeri can secure Champions League qualification by winning their final match away at Venezia. However, dropping points could open the door for their rivals to either leapfrog them or pull level in fourth place.

Serie A: the only scenario that could force random draw for the last Champions League spot

According to Serie A rules, head-to-head points are the first tiebreaker when teams finish level. But if Roma and Juventus end up with the same number of points, this criterion wouldn’t settle it, as their two meetings this season ended in a perfect balance (0-0 and 1-1).

In that case, the ranking would be determined—by order of priority—through head-to-head goal difference, overall goal difference in the league, and goals scored. All of these could potentially be identical if Juventus lose to Venezia by three goals and Roma draw, scoring one more goal than Juve.

For instance:

• Juventus lose 3-0 to Venezia, Roma draw 1-1 with Torino, and Lazio fail to beat Lecce

• Juventus lose 4-1 to Venezia, Roma draw 2-2, and Lazio fail to beat Lecce

As explained by Sky Sport Italia, in such a case, a random draw—conducted at the Lega Serie A headquarters in Milan—would be required to determine which team qualifies for next season’s Champions League.

The names of the two clubs would be placed in a ballot box and drawn by Lega Serie A president Ezio Simonelli in a private event.