Revealed: Opta Supercomputer predicts new favourites to win the Champions League ahead of crunch quarter finals including huge Arsenal clash with Real Madrid

With the return of the Champions League this week, Opta’s supercomputer has revealed which of the eight remaining teams is most likely to go all the way, after favourites Liverpool were knocked out in the last round. 

Arne Slot‘s side had been on course for a Treble not so long ago, only to lose the Carabao Cup final to Newcastle and suffer a penalty shootout defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16. 

Heading into this week’s quarter final first legs, we are left with eight teams after 28 sides were knocked out over the course of the campaign: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan, PSG and Real Madrid.  

The Reds had finished as champions in 23.9 per cent of Opta’s simulations of the Champions League, but their exit has left a vacancy at the top of the predicted order. 

That void has now been filled, though, with Catalan giants Barcelona now deemed the most likely team to win the competition, going all the way in 23.1 per cent of simulations. 

The supercomputer’s calculations are made by using a combination of betting odds and Opta’s power rankings, which are in turn derived from recent and historical team performances in the competition. 

Mikel Arteta’s side face a huge test in the form of Real Madrid in Tuesday’s quarter final clash

Los Blancos have historically dominated the competition and are the current holders

The Blaugrana also reached the semi-finals in 78.2 per cent of simulations – an ominous omen for Wednesday night’s opponents Dortmund – and the final 44.3 per cent of the time. 

Second in the list are recently-crowned Ligue 1 champions PSG, with a 19.3 per cent likelihood of winning the competition, and a similarly comfortable predicted chance of beating Aston Villa in the quarters, rated at 71.3 per cent. 

Despite drawing the most successful side in the competition’s history in Real Madrid, though, Arsenal are third-most likely to win the Champions League.

Mikel Arteta’s side are given a 15.6 per cent chance of success, but interestingly an agonisingly tight 50.2 per cent chance of beating Los Blancos in the last eight. 

They are just ahead of Inter Milan’s 13.8 per cent chance of adding a fourth Champions League title, with the Serie A leaders backed to beat Bayern Munich in 51.5 per cent of simulations in another tight draw.

Real Madrid are perhaps a surprise fifth place in the competition they have historically made child’s play of winning. 

Though they are effectively just as likely to beat Arsenal as lose according to the simulations (48.2 per cent chance of progression) they have only been given a 12.2 per cent chance of a triumph at the Allianz Arena on May 31.

Bayern Munich are in sixth, the last of the genuine contenders for the title, with Vincent Kompany’s side given a 10.8 per cent chance and are only just tipped for defeat in the quarters against Inter. 

Bukayo Saka’s timely return from injury could prove the difference for Arsenal against Real

PSG are the second-most likely team to win the competition according to the supercomputer

Inter Milan are fourth, behind Arsenal, with captain Lautaro Martinez’s goals key to their hopes

Bayern Munich are one of Europe’s giants but have just a 10.8 per cent chance of success

Aston Villa are the second-least likely team to win the Champions League according to Opta

But Aston Villa have just about avoided the dishonour of being bottom of the pile, their 3.7 per cent likelihood of winning the tournament still higher than Borussia Dortmund’s 1.5 per cent. 

Both sides have tough draws. Villa have PSG, before a potential semi final with Arsenal or Real Madrid, while Dortmund would face the winner of Bayern vs Inter if they can find a way past favourites Barcelona. 

Yet Dortmund will point to the fact that they were largely outside contenders for much of last season’s competition, but still found their way to the Wembley showpiece all the same. 

Villa are given a 28.7 per cent chance of beating PSG and just a 9.1 per cent likelihood of making the final, which edges out Dortmund’s 21.8 per cent and 5.2 per cent shouts respectively.