Serie A close to extra UCL spot, but Italy underdog against Germany and Spain

The Champions League trophy
EPA-EFE/JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BOTT

Serie A have four clubs remaining in European competitions and will battle with Germany and Spain for an extra Champions League spot, but Italy’s contenders have more representatives.

Atalanta, Roma, Bologna and Fiorentina are the four Serie A clubs remaining in European competitions this season, and Italy’s chance to earn an extra Champions League spot in 2026-27 depends on how far they’ll go in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

Atalanta are the only Serie A representative in the Champions League Round of 16, Bologna and Roma have qualified for the Europa League Round of 16, and so has Fiorentina in the Conference League.

Today’s draws will determine their next opponents.

Updated UEFA Coefficient Ranking

Italy sits fifth in the UEFA coefficient ranking, where the English Premier League has already practically secured the top spot and an extra Champions League spot for next season.

Germany, Spain and Italy will battle for the second and last available place, and the gap between the three contenders is currently only 0.20 points.

Germany currently sits second with 17.571 points, Spain follows in fourth with 17.406, while Italy sit fifth with 17.357.

Both Germany and Spain, however, have more clubs left in European competitions, so technically, they have more chances to earn points. They also have more clubs in the Champions League, a further concern for Italy.

Europe’s elite competition can, in fact, award up to 48 points to a nation; the maximum in the Europa League is 40, and in the Conference League, it’s 32.

Why Italy underdogs against Germany and Spain

Spain’s La Liga has six representatives left, including three in the Champions League, Real Madrid, Atletico and Barcelona.

Germany’s Bundesliga has five clubs remaining in Europe, two in the Champions League: Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.

As Gazzetta highlights, ‘theoretically Italy has limited chances because we can earn fewer points. Just as Poland and Portugal have pulled away, the same could happen to our clubs now. Naturally, winning every match and every trophy would change the picture, but a healthy dose of realism doesn’t hurt to avoid ending up disappointed.’