Statistical predictions for Inter Scudetto victory in close 2025-26 Serie A battle

Inter are considered the favourites to win the Serie A title in 2025-26 by two different statistical models, but they both confirm Italian football as one of the most unpredictable.

The campaign has only just started with two rounds played, and already there are only four teams with a 100 per cent record.

That outlines how evenly balanced the Scudetto race can be, especially compared to some of the other top five European leagues where only a couple of genuine contenders are in the running.

Inter tipped for Scudetto success

Nonetheless, both the CIES Football Observatory and the Opta supercomputer predict that Inter will be on top at the end of the season.

They have slightly different statistic probabilities, as CIES give them a 25.6 per cent chance of winning, compared to Opta’s 26.07 per cent.

It gets a lot more varied after that, as Opta put Napoli in second place on 21 per cent, whereas CIES have Juventus ahead of the reigning champions on 18.2 per cent, leaving the Partenopei just 17.4 per cent.

CIES complete the top eight with Roma in fourth for the Champions League spot, followed by Milan, Atalanta, Lazio and Fiorentina.

Opta are even more encouraging about Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma, putting them in third, with Juventus fourth, Atalanta fifth, then Milan, Bologna and Lazio.