The exact moment it all started to unravel for Gary O’Neil at Wolves – and the reasons why he’s not solely to blame

To find the source of Wolves‘ alarming decline under Gary O’Neil, we need to go back much further than the start of this season.

O’Neil was sacked on Sunday after a dreadful haul of nine points from their opening 15 league games.

Blame it on a ferocious opening sequence of fixtures, rough VAR calls or losing the two best players. Very few managers survive a run like that, especially when player discipline collapses as it did in O’Neil’s final two games, against West Ham and Ipswich.

It was grimly appropriate that his tenure should end in farce off the pitch as well as on it, with chairman Jeff Shi’s column in the local newspaper last Thursday. He backed O’Neil in that article before sacking him 72 hours later.

Yet this story started last January. Finding himself desperately short in attack, O’Neil thought he had a deal to sign Armando Broja from Chelsea on an initial loan agreement. At the time Wolves were 11th but with an outside shot at qualifying for European competition. Broja had been granted little playing time at Stamford Bridge and was keen to move to Molineux.

Mindful of breaking spending rules and landing a points deduction, those in charge of finances said no. Since the window closed on February 1, Wolves’ form has been desperate.

His dismissal came just 72 hours after he had been publicly backed by chairman Jeff Shi

Wolves also parted company with O’Neil’s backroom staff, including Ian Burchnall (left)

O’Neil has made mistakes. Switching from a back three to a back four felt like an attempt to fix something that was not broken – and as if to prove the point, he had returned to a three-man defence by the end of his reign.

Before this season, O’Neil’s results were better than his teams’ underlying performances indicated and that will always catch up with a manager in the end.

Under Opta’s ‘expected points’ metric, which is calculated using the respected xG (expected goals) formula studied by all top clubs, O’Neil’s Bournemouth would have finished 19th in 2022-23, and Wolves 17th last season.

O’Neil has always talked a good game, manages his image carefully and is incredibly impressive in job interviews. Because he took the job on the eve of last season and made a strong start, it is possible the wider football community may have over-estimated his ability.

In Wolves’ circumstances, a manager needs one of three things to survive. He must have substantial experience, be a brilliant coach and tactician, or an inspirational leader. O’Neil will rack up miles on the clock but it is unclear whether he will ever develop the other qualities.

Yet nor should he be written off – especially as the 41-year-old is not the only one responsible for this mess.

The transfer policy has been chaotic and that is not O’Neil’s fault. Anyone with a passing interest in Wolves knew they would need another senior centre-back after captain Max Kilman joined West Ham in July.

Yet Wolves panicked after the 6-2 home defeat by Chelsea on August 25 and decided they a replacement for goalkeeper Jose Sa rather than a new central defender.

Their original target was Aaron Ramsdale but they eventually spent £10m on Sam Johnstone, who is not an obvious upgrade on Sa. That is why the spotlight should also be trained on Shi and sporting director Matt Hobbs.

Wolves sold star defender Max Kilman to Premier League rivals West Ham in the summer

After losing 6-2 to Chelsea in August, Wolves opted to sign a replacement for keeper Jose Sa

In came Sam Johnstone (left) from Crystal Palace for a transfer fee in the region of £10m

Since he sacked Nuno Espirito Santo at the end of the 2020-21 season, Shi’s approach to hiring and handling managers has been mixed at best.

Hobbs became sporting director in November 2022 and has had some success in the market, notably the £15.7million signing of Brazilian midfielder Joao Gomes.

The flip side is that nearly £65m was spent on eight players in summer 2024 only for the squad to appear weaker. Did Wolves actually need Andre, another Brazilian midfielder, who cost £23m from Fluminense, more than that elusive defender?

O’Neil is not the type to call out his bosses publicly though he had concerns about the fitness levels of on-loan forward Jorgen Strand Larsen and did not believe winger Rodrigo Gomes, who cost £12.7m from Portuguese club Braga, was up to the mark.

Mail Sport also understands that by the end of last season, O’Neil was worried about the future. He had seen the Broja deal fall apart and was braced for Kilman and Pedro Neto to depart – which they did, to West Ham and Chelsea respectively.

Those around O’Neil wondered whether Wolves’ adjusted recruitment policy, based on signing low-cost youngsters with resale value, would leave him high and dry.

Though he was not actively looking to leave, if a Premier League rival had approached at that stage, it is thought O’Neil would have taken it seriously – but his stock was already declining.

After an excellent first half of the campaign, his team collected only five points from their last 10 games of 2023-24. Under those circumstances, it seemed strange to tie O’Neil and his staff to new four-year deals in August.

O’Neil oversaw 63 games in all competitions as Wolves boss, winning 20 and losing 32 

His final game in charge was a 2-1 home defeat by Ipswich Town on Saturday afternoon

Saturday’s game ended in chaos and ugly scenes were witnessed on the field at Molineux

Though he had good relations with certain players, notably star attacker Matheus Cunha, O’Neil is probably not the natural leader this complex dressing room needs. Gone are the days of Conor Coady and Ruben Neves, whose personalities carried other players with them for most of Nuno Espirito Santo’s reign.

With 16 different nationalities, this squad is a delicate mix. While players are not at each other’s throats, it is a far cry from the Nuno era, when they visited each other’s homes during the week to play pool or games consoles.

There is thought to be limited camaraderie in this group, and few forceful characters. That has been evident on the pitch, where Wolves have conceded a league-high 40 goals. Mario Lemina was stripped of the captaincy after losing his rag at West Ham and Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri will be punished following unsavoury scenes at the end of the Ipswich game.

Many fans have been disillusioned since the 2020-21 season, when performances started to decline under Nuno.

Chinese owners Fosun International have been in control since 2016 and for six of those years, Wolves have been in the Premier League, reaching an FA Cup semi-final and a Europa League quarter-final. Unfortunately for them, the sharpest memories are the most recent ones.

To many fans, the answer is simple: the best players have left, Fosun have turned off the spending taps and season-ticket prices are up. They feel Wolves are caught in a spiral of ever-diminishing returns that risks ending in the Championship.

Shi has recently been in discussions with the local council about joint-funding partnerships to improve Molineux and promote the city of Wolverhampton. These are admirable aims, but his primary focus should be to rebuild a structure that can give these disgruntled supporters more teams to remember. He would be foolish to underestimate the size of that challenge.