What AC Milan and Roma need to qualify for Europe

MILAN, ITALY – FEBRUARY 05: Santiago Gimenez of AC Milan runs with the ball during the Coppa Italia Quarter Final match between AC Milan and AS Roma at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on February 05, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Roma and Milan meet at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday. Both sides still aim to qualify for Europe, so what do they need to achieve their target?

Roma have 63 points, one less than Juventus and Lazio. If they win their remaining two games against Udinese and Venezia, the Bianconeri will qualify for the Champions League as they have a better head-to-head record against the Biancocelesti.

The head-to-head record between Roma and Juventus is identical, so if they finish level on points next week, the team with the better overall goal difference will finish fourth.

The head-to-head record between Roma and Lazio is favourable to the Giallorossi.

Technically, Milan can still qualify for the Champions League, but their chances are reduced, to say the least, as they sit four points below Juve and Lazio with two games remaining.

Bologna have already earned one of the two spots available for the Europa League by winning the Coppa Italia and can still qualify for the Champions League. If the Rossoblu finish fourth, the 5th and 6th-placed teams will qualify for the Europa League.

However, if the Coppa Italia winners finish 5th, only the 6th-placed team will qualify for the Europa League, and the 7th-placed team will play in the Conference League next season.

Likewise, the 5th-placed team qualifies for the Europa League, and the 7th will go to the Conference League if Bologna finish 6th.

If Bologna finish outside the top 6, then the fifth-placed team qualifies for the Europa League and the team in the 6th spot will play in the Conference League.

With this in mind, if Milan lose against Roma, they’ll be unlikely to play in any European competition next season, but any verdict will depend on their opponents’ results as well.

Roma’s Champions League hopes are tied to Lazio and Juventus’ results, and surely the Giallorossi will have to wait until the final round for a top-four verdict, unless they lose to Milan and their direct rivals win their games. These results would end their Champions League dream with one game remaining.