Who Italy could face in 2026 World Cup play-off final – Football Italia

Gianluca Mancini and Italy celebrate the opening goal in their 2026 World Cup qualifier against Moldova (@azzurri)

Italy have confirmed their spot in the World Cup play-offs after Sunday evening’s 4-1 defeat against Norway in San Siro, but who could the Azzurri go on to face in the next two rounds of the qualification process coming up in March? 

Despite going 1-0 up through Pio Esposito, Italy were battered by four second half goals from Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland (x2) and Jorgen Strand Larsen in San Siro on Sunday night. 

That means that Norway finished top of the group with a 100% win record from their eight qualifiers, while Italy finished second on 18 points from six wins and two losses, both defeats coming against Norway. 

Italy will now have to go through the World Cup play-off system again. The semi-finals will take place on March 26 and the finals will take place a few days later on March 30. 

Gennaro Gattuso and his players will discover their potential opponents at the play-off draw, which will take place on Thursday (November 20), beginning at 12.00 GMT (13.00 CET). 

Who could Italy face in World Cup play-offs? 

It is a relatively clear picture for the World Cup semi-finals: Italy are in Pot A and as things stand, can face one of five potential Pot D nations in the semis, either Sweden, Romania or Northern Ireland (who are ‘guaranteed’ potential opponents), and either North Macedonia or Wales, depending on the outcome of their game against each other on Tuesday evening. 

Unlike Italy’s, not every group in World Cup qualifying has been completed just yet, which means that the picture is not quite as clear for the play-off finals. 

Assuming that Italy get through the semis, they will go on to face a team from either Pot B or Pot C in the final on March 30. 

That means that they are guaranteed to avoid Turkey, Ukraine and Poland, who are likely to join the Azzurri in Pot A of the draw. 

There is still a mathematical chance that Germany, Denmark and Austria end up in the play-off draw, but if any of them did, they would also go into Pot A and would avoid Italy in the play-offs. 

As things stand, the teams in Pot B are Wales, Scotland, Slovakia and Czechia. These are Italy’s ‘toughest’ possible final opponents by their FIFA rankings. 

As per La Gazzetta dello Sport, the most likely teams to end up in Pot C as things stand are the Republic of Ireland, Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo.