Who will qualify for the Champions League semifinals? Opta's supercomputer has a clear answer

The Champions League 2023-24 enters one of its most attractive weeks. A giant quarter-final is on the horizon, with another clash between Guardiola’s City and Madrid; Luis Enrique and Mbappe‘s PSG against Xavi’s Barcelona; an unbeatable Atletico at home to Dortmund and Arteta’s Arsenal against Bayern.

As always, The Analyst brings us his predictions for these four knockout fixtures and indeed the rest of the tournament.

How does the Opta supercomputer work?

This statistical model uses odds from the betting market and Opta Power Rankings, which is based on historical and recent team performances.

The computer simulates the matches thousands of times. After analysis, it looks at how often each team is ranked to determine the final prediction.

Manchester City-Real Madrid

According to OPTA’s supercomputer, the most unbalanced tie of all (although the gap is minimal) is Manchester City-Real Madrid. The English side have a 60% chance of advancing to the semis compared to Real Madrid’s 40%.

The two clubs have met in four of the last five seasons. In 2020-2021, Guardiola‘s side eliminated Zidane’s men from the Champions League for the first time in the round of 16. In the 2021-2022 season, they met in the semis, with a miraculous comeback by Los Blancos.

Last season, the draw paired them in the semis again, and the Sky Blues again eliminated Madrid with a 4-0 win in Manchester.

Bayern-Arsenal

In Tuesday’s other tie, the supercomputer detects the differing form of Bayern and Arsenal. At the beginning of the season, the Germans were expected to be favorites against the English side, a team they have eliminated all four times they have met in the Champions League.

However, the situation has changed. Arsenal, current leaders of the Premier League, have a 58.5% chance of returning to the semis 15 years later (the last time was in 2009). Bayern have a 41.5% chance and this is the only title they can lift this season.

Barcelona-PSG

In Wednesday’s knockout clashes, the predictions are even more evenly matched. For OPTA, PSG are the 57% favorite. Los Azulgranas are left with a 43% chance. The two sides have a great rivalry, fueled by all the times they have met in recent years.

Of the five knockout rounds between the two, Barcelona have come out on top in three and PSG two (including the most recent, in 2021). The most memorable is the 6-1 comeback in 2017, with Luis Enrique on the Barcelona bench.

Borussia Dortmund-Atletico Madrid

The most evenly matched tie for the supercomputer is between Atletico and Dortmund. The Germans are slight favorites, with a 56.3% chance. The Colchoneros, on the other hand, have a 43.7% chance of reaching the semis.

One of the keys to understanding this prediction is that Dortmund play the second leg at their stadium. Simeone‘s team are proving to be a fortress at the Metropolitano, as on the night of the Inter Milan win. But everything will be settled at the Signal Iduna Park, one of the hottest stadiums in Europe.

City also favored to win the Champions League

The model also simulates the hypothetical semi-final and final matches. And according to this prediction, Manchester City are the favorite to lift the title again with a 28.3% probability. Real Madrid and PSG are the next most likely teams. The teams with the least chance are Bayern and Atletico Madrid, with 6.2% and 5% respectively.