Revealed: Stats point to surprise Premier League omissions in Champions League next season as race to finish in the top five intensifies

The 2024-25 Premier League season has been full of surprises both at the top and bottom of the league producing a unique campaign for fans and neutrals alike.

Shock results have been aplenty in the Premier League with defeats for bigger sides becoming more frequent.

This includes Liverpool‘s narrow 1-0 defeat to the revitalised Nottingham Forest in the Reds’ only loss so far and Bournemouth‘s 2-1 overpowering of reigning champions Manchester City.

This does point to the real possibility of some shake-ups to the traditional Top Six come the end of the season, a notion which is turning fans’ heads from across the globe.

The fight for the Champions League places is the main focus with nine teams competing for just five places.

However, with Liverpool firmly placing one hand on the trophy ahead of their match against Carabao Cup finalists Newcastle in the Premier League on Wednesday night, there’s realistically only four spots up for grabs.

Both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are threatening the established order at the top

The Reds have been sensational this season, losing just once in the league, commanding an 11-point lead over second place Arsenal.

The Gunners look set to be pipped at the post for the third season in a row following back-to-back second place finishes behind the league’s former dominant side Manchester City.

Mikel Arteta’s side have been a resolute force this season, their 23 goals conceded proving that they are the best rearguard in the league.

Their defensive acumen will surely help them to secure a second-place finish and Champions League football for a fourth straight year.

Yet, attacking injuries to Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz has hampered their performances at the other end of the pitch, highlighted by their toothless 1-0 loss to West Ham.

Having to depend on disappointing Chelsea loanee Raheem Sterling shows Arsenal’s desperate need to buy big next summer in the attacking positions, particularly with the absence of a potent striker – hinting at the missed opportunity of Alexander Isak.

Newcastle’s Swedish sweetheart is enjoying a superb season, netting 19 times in the Premier League ahead of his encounter with Liverpool on Wednesday, only trailing Mohamed Salah (25).

Despite a slow start to the season, the Magpies have picked up form as the campaign progressed, sitting sixth in the table but only due to their inferior goal difference to Manchester City.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have struggled with injuries and look set to be pipped to the post again

Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have been propelled towards the top thanks to star Alexander Isak

Given a 34.61 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League next year by Opta Analyst, Newcastle fans will be expecting a strong end to the season.

Sitting on 44 points with Newcastle, it has been a season to forget for Manchester City who were once seen as an unstoppable force.

Despite holding the outright record for winning four consecutive league titles, City are experiencing their worst season ever under Pep Guardiola management.

Feeling the absence of Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, City have looked catastrophic at the back, conceding 37 goals in 26 games which is more than the likes of Crystal Palace (33) and Everton (33).

Although predicted to qualify for the Champions League, don’t be surprised if the Cityzens fall out of the Top Five come May, facing the unfathomable possibility of Europa League or even Conference League football.

The chasm left by Guardiola has been pounced on by a fellow compatriot Andoni Iraola who has turned Bournemouth into an exciting Premier League outfit.

Upholding a gung-ho philosophy instilled by his teacher, former Leeds and current Uruguay boss, Marcelo Bielsa, Iraola has performed wonders on the south coast, pushing them to the cusp of European football.

The Cherries have been the giant-killers of the league this season, registering shock results against Manchester City, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.

Manchester City have been without injured Ballon d’Or winner Rodri for most of the season 

Iraola’s Cherries have been the giant-killers of the league this season beating Arsenal and City

However, their high-intensity approach can backfire, as seen on Tuesday night against south coast rivals Brighton as they lost 2-1.

The aspiration of Champions League is certainly not out of the question, but Opta feel that Bournemouth may need to settle for the Conference League, albeit an excellent step towards long-term success.

Iraola will be looking towards another Spaniard and European expert Unai Emery to emanate Aston Villa’s success on the European stage.

Aston Villa have had a turbulent campaign, currently sitting in 10th, but remain only two points off the Champions League spots.

The rise of Morgan Rogers has been the highlight for Aston Villa’s 2024-25 campaign, along with solid performances in the Champions League.

Famous for the ‘cold’ celebration, Rogers has seven goals and four assists this season, often inspiring the Villains to victory in an inconsistent campaign.

Another adopter of the ‘shivering’ celebration, Cole Palmer’s Chelsea will also be aiming high this season and would be expected to clinch a Champions League position.

After a phenomenal start to the season, the Blues have claimed only 12 out of a possible 33 points since their 2-1 win over Brentford back in December.

The rise of Morgan Rogers has been the highlight for Aston Villa’s 2024-25 campaign

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca suffered a similar mid-season drop-off with his title-winning Leicester team in 2023-24, hinting he might not be the man for the job.

Prior to the 4-0 win over struggling Southampton, Paul Merson highlighted the importance of the game and their next match against relegation threatened Leicester in order to retain his position.

‘They’re playing against two of the worst teams to play in the Premier League for I don’t know how long in Southampton and Leicester.’ said Paul Merson. ‘So, if they don’t win those two games, he will do well to keep his job.’

Despite being favourites to win the Conference League, which would secure qualification to the Europa League, Opta suggest the Blues will marginally miss out on Champions League football, a hammer blow for the ‘billion-dollar bottle-jobs’.

They favour the surprise package of the Premier League season, Nottingham Forest, to steal a Champions League position out of Chelsea’s hands.

When he took over Nottingham Forest midway through last season, Nuno Espirito Santo was given an uphill challenge to prevent Forest from relegation.

Just over a year later, the Garibaldi are third in the Premier League, on the verge of their long-awaited return to European football for the first time since 1980.

Following disputes with Wolves and a calamitous spell at Tottenham Hotspur, Espirito Santo has restored his credentials as an excellent manager.

Chelsea’s charge up the table had hit something of a roadblock in the early stages of 2025

Chris Wood’s 18 goals in the Premier League have been one of the surprise stories of the season

Prioritising defence and efficiency, the Portuguese manager has developed a dynamic side who transition from defence to attack in a heartbeat.

The potency of striker Chris Wood has surprised spectators, registering 18 goals so far ahead of Forest’s crucial tie against Arsenal on Wednesday.

However, the 4-3 loss to Newcastle will remind Nottingham Forest that they are certainly not the finished article demonstrating their need for focus if they want to beat their Premier League rivals to Champions League qualification.

Opta predict that the Top Five at the end of the season will be made up of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle with Chelsea facing the narrowest margin of missing Champions League football with a predicted 32.28 per cent chance.

Still, football is a wonderful game which cannot be predicted, adding to the overarching excitement of a season set to break traditional norms as the so-called ‘smaller’ teams disturb the calm of the traditional dominating Premier League powers.